← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.30+0.99vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.59vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California0.90+3.72vs Predicted
-
4University of California at San Diego0.68+3.52vs Predicted
-
5University of Washington0.81+1.78vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-0.99vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.66vs Predicted
-
8Western Washington University0.67-0.49vs Predicted
-
9Arizona State University0.74-0.84vs Predicted
-
10San Diego State University-0.19-0.38vs Predicted
-
11California Poly Maritime Academy0.86-3.97vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Berkeley-0.56-1.59vs Predicted
-
13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-5.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.99Stanford University3.3046.7%1st Place
-
4.59University of California at Los Angeles1.7911.6%1st Place
-
6.72University of Southern California0.904.7%1st Place
-
7.52University of California at San Diego0.683.4%1st Place
-
6.78University of Washington0.814.9%1st Place
-
5.01University of California at Santa Barbara1.448.9%1st Place
-
7.66University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.6%1st Place
-
7.51Western Washington University0.673.4%1st Place
-
8.16Arizona State University0.743.2%1st Place
-
9.62San Diego State University-0.191.4%1st Place
-
7.03California Poly Maritime Academy0.864.5%1st Place
-
10.41University of California at Berkeley-0.561.1%1st Place
-
7.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.352.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 46.7% | 27.5% | 13.4% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 11.6% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Noah Barton | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 5.1% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.9% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 5.4% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.4% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 4.8% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.8% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 22.9% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Victoria Chen | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 37.8% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.