← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.30+0.99vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.57vs Predicted
-
3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35+5.06vs Predicted
-
4Arizona State University0.74+4.34vs Predicted
-
5University of California at San Diego0.68+2.23vs Predicted
-
6Western Washington University0.67+1.55vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-2.08vs Predicted
-
8University of Southern California0.90-1.25vs Predicted
-
9University of Washington0.81-2.12vs Predicted
-
10California Poly Maritime Academy0.86-2.98vs Predicted
-
11San Diego State University-0.19-1.30vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Berkeley-0.56-1.61vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-5.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.99Stanford University3.3048.8%1st Place
-
4.57University of California at Los Angeles1.7910.4%1st Place
-
8.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.353.0%1st Place
-
8.34Arizona State University0.743.2%1st Place
-
7.23University of California at San Diego0.684.0%1st Place
-
7.55Western Washington University0.673.4%1st Place
-
4.92University of California at Santa Barbara1.449.6%1st Place
-
6.75University of Southern California0.904.3%1st Place
-
6.88University of Washington0.814.2%1st Place
-
7.02California Poly Maritime Academy0.864.1%1st Place
-
9.7San Diego State University-0.191.0%1st Place
-
10.39University of California at Berkeley-0.561.3%1st Place
-
7.62University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 48.8% | 25.1% | 13.4% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.4% | 14.8% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 9.3% |
| Noah Barton | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 4.2% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 4.7% |
| Ted McDonough | 9.6% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 22.1% |
| Victoria Chen | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 16.4% | 37.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.