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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+0.95vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.01vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.79+1.51vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.68+3.42vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.81+1.89vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.67+1.61vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy0.86+0.02vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-0.47vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.56+1.31vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-1.84vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.19-1.33vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.74-3.82vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California0.90-6.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.95Stanford University3.3048.1%1st Place
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5.01University of California at Santa Barbara1.448.4%1st Place
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4.51University of California at Los Angeles1.7911.4%1st Place
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7.42University of California at San Diego0.684.1%1st Place
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6.89University of Washington0.814.2%1st Place
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7.61Western Washington University0.673.7%1st Place
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7.02California Poly Maritime Academy0.864.7%1st Place
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7.53University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.4%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Berkeley-0.561.2%1st Place
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8.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.352.9%1st Place
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9.67San Diego State University-0.191.1%1st Place
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8.18Arizona State University0.743.2%1st Place
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6.75University of Southern California0.903.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 48.1% | 26.4% | 14.4% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.4% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Grant Janov | 11.4% | 14.8% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Noah Barton | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% |
| Victoria Chen | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 36.4% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.0% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 18.6% | 21.8% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.