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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+1.01vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.86+5.14vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.68+4.31vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.67+3.51vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-0.04vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.81+0.94vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.79-2.60vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-0.34vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.74-0.76vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-1.92vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.56-0.56vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.19-2.38vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California0.90-6.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.01Stanford University3.3047.0%1st Place
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7.14California Poly Maritime Academy0.863.4%1st Place
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7.31University of California at San Diego0.683.7%1st Place
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7.51Western Washington University0.673.9%1st Place
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4.96University of California at Santa Barbara1.448.7%1st Place
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6.94University of Washington0.814.5%1st Place
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4.4University of California at Los Angeles1.7912.2%1st Place
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7.66University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.9%1st Place
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8.24Arizona State University0.743.1%1st Place
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8.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.353.2%1st Place
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10.44University of California at Berkeley-0.561.0%1st Place
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9.62San Diego State University-0.191.6%1st Place
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6.69University of Southern California0.905.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 47.0% | 26.4% | 13.7% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 3.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Noah Barton | 3.7% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 4.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.7% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| Grant Janov | 12.2% | 16.8% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 8.9% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% |
| Victoria Chen | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 37.8% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 17.2% | 21.5% |
| Morgana Manti | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.