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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+5.32vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.61+3.01vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.77+4.57vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.55+1.28vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.37+0.94vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.93+1.20vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.10-0.38vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University3.06-1.20vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.41-0.29vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.63-4.85vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.93vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University3.26-5.62vs Predicted
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13Bates College0.07+0.63vs Predicted
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14Brandeis University-0.10-0.28vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut0.66-2.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.01Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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7.57Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.28Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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5.94Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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7.2University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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6.62Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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6.8Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.71Bowdoin College2.410.0%1st Place
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5.15Boston University3.630.1%1st Place
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9.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.310.0%1st Place
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6.38Northeastern University3.260.1%1st Place
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13.63Bates College0.070.0%1st Place
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13.72Brandeis University-0.100.0%1st Place
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12.61University of Connecticut0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 10.1% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 11.7% | 16.2% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kurzrok | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Mullins | 12.9% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Hutchings | 9.7% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Simmons | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jason Michas | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Eric Decesar | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Fiske | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 16.6% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Perkins | 11.5% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Field | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 17.5% | 12.0% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nick Sneath | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 15.1% | 31.9% | 39.1% |
| Josh Basseches | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 4.7% | 15.9% | 29.5% | 42.6% |
| James Fales | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 30.1% | 27.8% | 16.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.