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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+3.64vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.48+4.50vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.19+0.18vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.46+4.41vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.54+2.68vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+1.07vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.85-0.14vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.08-2.41vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.66-1.47vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-5.07vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-3.90vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.33-2.23vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-1.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.64University of California at Santa Barbara1.7414.1%1st Place
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6.5University of California at Los Angeles1.487.1%1st Place
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3.18Stanford University2.1925.2%1st Place
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8.41University of Washington0.463.8%1st Place
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7.68Western Washington University0.544.0%1st Place
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7.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.725.5%1st Place
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6.86University of Southern California0.855.1%1st Place
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5.59University of California at San Diego-0.0810.0%1st Place
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7.53Arizona State University0.664.7%1st Place
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4.93California Poly Maritime Academy1.3112.3%1st Place
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7.1University of California at Santa Cruz0.825.7%1st Place
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9.77University of California at Berkeley-0.331.8%1st Place
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11.74San Diego State University-1.270.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 14.1% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Sophie Fisher | 25.2% | 23.2% | 16.2% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 15.0% | 6.7% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 3.4% |
| Ryan Milne | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 2.1% |
| Marlo Bozza | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 3.4% |
| Kyle Farmer | 12.3% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| George Soliman | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 1.7% |
| Fiona Wu | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 26.3% | 17.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 62.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.