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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.19+2.23vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.48+4.46vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+1.98vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.54+3.54vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.85+1.82vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-1.41vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.33+2.77vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72-0.98vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.46-0.61vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-1.27+1.80vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.08-5.26vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.66-4.51vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-5.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23Stanford University2.1925.5%1st Place
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6.46University of California at Los Angeles1.486.4%1st Place
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4.98California Poly Maritime Academy1.3113.1%1st Place
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7.54Western Washington University0.544.7%1st Place
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6.82University of Southern California0.856.1%1st Place
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4.59University of California at Santa Barbara1.7413.7%1st Place
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9.77University of California at Berkeley-0.332.1%1st Place
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7.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.725.5%1st Place
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8.39University of Washington0.463.7%1st Place
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11.8San Diego State University-1.270.5%1st Place
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5.74University of California at San Diego-0.088.2%1st Place
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7.49Arizona State University0.664.7%1st Place
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7.18University of California at Santa Cruz0.826.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 25.5% | 20.2% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Kyle Farmer | 13.1% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 2.4% |
| Marlo Bozza | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| David Alexander | 13.7% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Fiona Wu | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 26.2% | 17.3% |
| Ryan Milne | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 6.2% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 13.0% | 63.9% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 2.4% |
| George Soliman | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.