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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+3.66vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.48+4.59vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+1.90vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.19-0.84vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.85+1.88vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+1.14vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.08-1.30vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-0.86vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.33+0.78vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.66-2.54vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.54-3.45vs Predicted
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12University of Washington0.46-3.66vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.66University of California at Santa Barbara1.7412.8%1st Place
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6.59University of California at Los Angeles1.487.5%1st Place
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4.9California Poly Maritime Academy1.3112.0%1st Place
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3.16Stanford University2.1925.6%1st Place
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6.88University of Southern California0.856.6%1st Place
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7.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.725.1%1st Place
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5.7University of California at San Diego-0.088.3%1st Place
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7.14University of California at Santa Cruz0.825.9%1st Place
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9.78University of California at Berkeley-0.332.4%1st Place
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7.46Arizona State University0.665.3%1st Place
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7.55Western Washington University0.544.7%1st Place
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8.34University of Washington0.463.2%1st Place
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11.72San Diego State University-1.270.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 12.8% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Kyle Farmer | 12.0% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Sophie Fisher | 25.6% | 21.2% | 17.2% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Milne | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 2.2% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| George Soliman | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| Fiona Wu | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 25.7% | 17.3% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 5.7% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 13.5% | 62.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.