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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Wesleyan University2.71+1.76vs Predicted
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2Maine Maritime Academy1.38+3.62vs Predicted
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3University of Connecticut1.96+1.20vs Predicted
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5Amherst College1.69-0.40vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College1.50-1.05vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire1.52-1.97vs Predicted
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8Brandeis University1.25-2.34vs Predicted
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9McGill University1.06-2.98vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.99-4.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.76Wesleyan University2.710.3%1st Place
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5.62Maine Maritime Academy1.380.1%1st Place
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4.2University of Connecticut1.960.1%1st Place
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4.6Amherst College1.690.1%1st Place
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4.95Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
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5.03University of New Hampshire1.520.1%1st Place
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5.66Brandeis University1.250.1%1st Place
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6.02McGill University1.060.1%1st Place
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6.18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.990.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGlynn | 30.2% | 24.4% | 16.4% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew McHenry | 5.6% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 13.4% |
| Michael Rottier | 14.5% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 2.8% |
| Johannes Raatz | 11.1% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 5.8% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 9.1% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 10.1% |
| Will Humphrey | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% |
| Jared Dunn | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 16.8% | 12.9% |
| Maxime Fecteau | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 22.1% |
| Priscilla Stoll | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 15.8% | 23.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.