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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.19+2.30vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+2.57vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.48+3.65vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+0.95vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.85+1.74vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+1.17vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.54+0.58vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-0.81vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.46-0.56vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.08-4.53vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.66-3.59vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.27-0.24vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.33-3.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.3Stanford University2.1925.0%1st Place
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4.57University of California at Santa Barbara1.7414.4%1st Place
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6.65University of California at Los Angeles1.487.3%1st Place
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4.95California Poly Maritime Academy1.3111.0%1st Place
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6.74University of Southern California0.856.8%1st Place
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7.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.725.4%1st Place
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7.58Western Washington University0.545.1%1st Place
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7.19University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.6%1st Place
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8.44University of Washington0.463.1%1st Place
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5.47University of California at San Diego-0.089.9%1st Place
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7.41Arizona State University0.664.5%1st Place
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11.76San Diego State University-1.270.8%1st Place
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9.77University of California at Berkeley-0.332.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 25.0% | 19.2% | 17.1% | 13.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 14.4% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 0.9% |
| Kyle Farmer | 11.0% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Marlo Bozza | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| Ryan Milne | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 1.7% |
| Nathan Gerber | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 3.8% |
| George Soliman | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 2.1% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 15.6% | 5.8% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 9.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 13.9% | 63.1% |
| Fiona Wu | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 23.9% | 17.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.