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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Wesleyan University2.71+1.76vs Predicted
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2Brandeis University1.25+3.89vs Predicted
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3University of Connecticut1.96+1.19vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College1.50-0.03vs Predicted
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6Maine Maritime Academy1.38-0.78vs Predicted
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7Amherst College1.69-2.35vs Predicted
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8McGill University1.06-1.91vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire1.52-3.93vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.99-4.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.76Wesleyan University2.710.3%1st Place
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5.89Brandeis University1.250.1%1st Place
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4.19University of Connecticut1.960.1%1st Place
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4.97Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
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5.22Maine Maritime Academy1.380.1%1st Place
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4.65Amherst College1.690.1%1st Place
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6.09McGill University1.060.1%1st Place
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5.07University of New Hampshire1.520.1%1st Place
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6.16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.990.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGlynn | 29.8% | 24.5% | 17.1% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jared Dunn | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 17.3% |
| Michael Rottier | 14.6% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 2.4% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 9.2% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 7.9% |
| Andrew McHenry | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 12.7% |
| Johannes Raatz | 10.9% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% |
| Maxime Fecteau | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 17.3% | 19.9% |
| Will Humphrey | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 9.9% |
| Priscilla Stoll | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 16.7% | 23.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.