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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.19+2.18vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+2.97vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+1.57vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+3.25vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-0.08+0.56vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.54+1.69vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.48-0.53vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-0.87vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.85-2.21vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.66-2.59vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.46-2.62vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.27-0.24vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.33-3.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.18Stanford University2.1927.3%1st Place
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4.97California Poly Maritime Academy1.3111.2%1st Place
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4.57University of California at Santa Barbara1.7412.2%1st Place
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7.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.725.3%1st Place
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5.56University of California at San Diego-0.0810.4%1st Place
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7.69Western Washington University0.544.5%1st Place
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6.47University of California at Los Angeles1.486.4%1st Place
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7.13University of California at Santa Cruz0.826.2%1st Place
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6.79University of Southern California0.856.0%1st Place
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7.41Arizona State University0.664.9%1st Place
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8.38University of Washington0.462.9%1st Place
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11.76San Diego State University-1.270.7%1st Place
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9.85University of California at Berkeley-0.331.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 27.3% | 21.1% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Farmer | 11.2% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| David Alexander | 12.2% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Milne | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 10.4% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 3.3% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| George Soliman | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 2.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 2.2% |
| Zackery Martin | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 6.3% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 11.9% | 65.3% |
| Fiona Wu | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 27.6% | 15.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.