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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+3.77vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.48+4.63vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.08+2.76vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.19-0.75vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.85+2.04vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.33+3.90vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-1.27+4.70vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72-0.87vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-1.70vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.51-2.59vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.66-3.41vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.54-4.44vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-8.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77University of California at Santa Barbara1.7413.1%1st Place
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6.63University of California at Los Angeles1.485.8%1st Place
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5.76University of California at San Diego-0.088.0%1st Place
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3.25Stanford University2.1925.4%1st Place
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7.04University of Southern California0.855.5%1st Place
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9.9University of California at Berkeley-0.332.2%1st Place
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11.7San Diego State University-1.270.8%1st Place
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7.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.725.7%1st Place
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7.3University of California at Santa Cruz0.825.0%1st Place
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7.41University of Washington0.515.2%1st Place
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7.59Arizona State University0.665.2%1st Place
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7.56Western Washington University0.544.8%1st Place
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4.96California Poly Maritime Academy1.3113.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 13.1% | 10.9% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 5.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Sophie Fisher | 25.4% | 20.5% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 1.9% |
| Fiona Wu | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 25.6% | 19.8% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 13.8% | 62.7% |
| Ryan Milne | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 2.1% |
| George Soliman | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 2.5% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 2.6% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 2.5% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 3.5% |
| Kyle Farmer | 13.2% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.