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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.19+2.25vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+5.17vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+2.00vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.66+3.50vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-0.08+0.78vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.85+0.97vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-2.26vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.48-1.34vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.54-1.33vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-2.74vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.33-1.06vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.27-0.28vs Predicted
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13University of Washington0.51-5.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.25Stanford University2.1925.8%1st Place
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7.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.726.3%1st Place
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5.0California Poly Maritime Academy1.3111.4%1st Place
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7.5Arizona State University0.664.0%1st Place
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5.78University of California at San Diego-0.089.7%1st Place
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6.97University of Southern California0.855.4%1st Place
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4.74University of California at Santa Barbara1.7412.7%1st Place
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6.66University of California at Los Angeles1.487.0%1st Place
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7.67Western Washington University0.544.2%1st Place
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7.26University of California at Santa Cruz0.825.5%1st Place
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9.94University of California at Berkeley-0.331.6%1st Place
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11.72San Diego State University-1.270.8%1st Place
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7.35University of Washington0.515.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 25.8% | 19.4% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 2.5% |
| Kyle Farmer | 11.4% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Marlo Bozza | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 2.1% |
| David Alexander | 12.7% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% |
| George Soliman | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 2.6% |
| Fiona Wu | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 26.5% | 18.4% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 14.0% | 62.9% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.