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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.19+2.23vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+3.01vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University0.66+4.33vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+3.15vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+2.26vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.46+2.40vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.08-1.28vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.54-0.49vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-4.28vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.85-3.35vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.48-4.50vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.33-2.21vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23Stanford University2.1925.2%1st Place
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5.01California Poly Maritime Academy1.3112.4%1st Place
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7.33Arizona State University0.665.6%1st Place
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7.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.725.1%1st Place
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7.26University of California at Santa Cruz0.825.1%1st Place
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8.4University of Washington0.463.6%1st Place
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5.72University of California at San Diego-0.089.0%1st Place
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7.51Western Washington University0.544.9%1st Place
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4.72University of California at Santa Barbara1.7414.1%1st Place
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6.65University of Southern California0.856.2%1st Place
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6.5University of California at Los Angeles1.486.0%1st Place
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9.79University of California at Berkeley-0.332.0%1st Place
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11.72San Diego State University-1.270.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 25.2% | 20.8% | 16.9% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Farmer | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% |
| Ryan Milne | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 2.4% |
| George Soliman | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 5.7% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 3.5% |
| David Alexander | 14.1% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Marlo Bozza | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| Fiona Wu | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 26.8% | 16.9% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 12.8% | 63.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.