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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.48+5.24vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University0.54+5.21vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.19+0.11vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+2.75vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.66+2.12vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-1.47vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.08-1.62vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.38-0.19vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-4.23vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-1.27+1.40vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.51-4.06vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-1.71vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.33-3.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24University of California at Los Angeles1.487.2%1st Place
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7.21Western Washington University0.545.7%1st Place
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3.11Stanford University2.1926.2%1st Place
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6.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.725.1%1st Place
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7.12Arizona State University0.665.7%1st Place
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4.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.7414.4%1st Place
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5.38University of California at San Diego-0.0810.0%1st Place
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7.81University of Southern California0.384.2%1st Place
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4.77California Poly Maritime Academy1.3111.6%1st Place
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11.4San Diego State University-1.270.8%1st Place
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6.94University of Washington0.515.9%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Santa Cruz-0.591.5%1st Place
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9.45University of California at Berkeley-0.331.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Gerber | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Sophie Fisher | 26.2% | 21.9% | 17.1% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 2.1% |
| David Alexander | 14.4% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Edward Ansart | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 3.7% |
| Kyle Farmer | 11.6% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 17.9% | 51.9% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 25.2% | 24.1% |
| Fiona Wu | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 17.3% | 21.1% | 12.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.