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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.19+2.06vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+2.43vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+1.59vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+2.72vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.66+2.08vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.08-0.53vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.54+0.24vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+2.44vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.38-1.13vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.48-3.82vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.51-3.98vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.33-2.50vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-1.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.06Stanford University2.1926.5%1st Place
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4.43University of California at Santa Barbara1.7413.5%1st Place
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4.59California Poly Maritime Academy1.3113.2%1st Place
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6.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.726.9%1st Place
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7.08Arizona State University0.664.7%1st Place
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5.47University of California at San Diego-0.089.7%1st Place
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7.24Western Washington University0.545.9%1st Place
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10.44University of California at Santa Cruz-0.591.4%1st Place
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7.87University of Southern California0.383.5%1st Place
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6.18University of California at Los Angeles1.487.0%1st Place
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7.02University of Washington0.515.5%1st Place
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9.5University of California at Berkeley-0.331.7%1st Place
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11.4San Diego State University-1.270.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 26.5% | 23.2% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 13.5% | 13.2% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Farmer | 13.2% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Milne | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Gerber | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 26.2% | 24.6% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 3.4% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Fiona Wu | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 17.1% | 21.2% | 11.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 17.4% | 53.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.