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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.19+2.04vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.08+3.36vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+1.46vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.54+3.26vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+1.73vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.66+1.05vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+3.39vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.38-0.17vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.51-2.04vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.48-3.74vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-6.29vs Predicted
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12-0.33-2.54vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27-1.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.04Stanford University2.1926.7%1st Place
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5.36University of California at San Diego-0.0810.1%1st Place
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4.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.7412.9%1st Place
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7.26Western Washington University0.545.2%1st Place
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6.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.726.2%1st Place
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7.05Arizona State University0.665.5%1st Place
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10.39University of California at Santa Cruz-0.591.2%1st Place
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7.83University of Southern California0.383.9%1st Place
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6.96University of Washington0.515.5%1st Place
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6.26University of California at Los Angeles1.487.2%1st Place
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4.71California Poly Maritime Academy1.3112.7%1st Place
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9.46-0.332.4%1st Place
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11.49San Diego State University-1.270.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 26.7% | 22.2% | 17.0% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 10.1% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| David Alexander | 12.9% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Milne | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 25.4% | 25.8% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 9.0% | 3.2% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Kyle Farmer | 12.7% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Fiona Wu | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 18.6% | 21.1% | 11.5% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 19.4% | 52.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.