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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University1.21+5.39vs Predicted
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2Princeton University1.87+3.90vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech-0.02+6.52vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.78+0.56vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.13+1.83vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.66-0.14vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College1.34-1.10vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University-0.20+1.89vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.27-0.62vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.47-3.93vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.78-6.91vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.20-3.10vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-4.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.39Christopher Newport University1.217.4%1st Place
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5.9Princeton University1.879.5%1st Place
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9.52Virginia Tech-0.022.5%1st Place
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4.56U. S. Naval Academy1.7815.1%1st Place
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6.83Fordham University1.137.0%1st Place
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5.86Washington College1.668.8%1st Place
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5.9Eckerd College1.349.2%1st Place
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9.89Old Dominion University-0.202.6%1st Place
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8.38Princeton University0.274.0%1st Place
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6.07Hampton University1.478.5%1st Place
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4.09North Carolina State University1.7818.2%1st Place
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8.9Washington College0.203.0%1st Place
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8.73Christopher Newport University-0.844.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fox | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Joshua Almany | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 22.6% |
| Tanner Kelly | 15.1% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| matthew Monts | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Parker Younger | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 17.8% | 28.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 11.9% |
| Valerio Palamara | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Adam Larson | 18.2% | 15.3% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 15.1% |
| Laura Smith | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 14.3% | 13.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.