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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.66+4.91vs Predicted
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2Princeton University1.87+3.95vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.78+1.60vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.13+2.67vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University1.78-0.94vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.34-0.19vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.21-0.66vs Predicted
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8Hampton University1.47-1.76vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-0.02+0.43vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.27-1.52vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.45vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University-0.20-2.14vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.20-3.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.91Washington College1.669.4%1st Place
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5.95Princeton University1.879.2%1st Place
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4.6U. S. Naval Academy1.7815.8%1st Place
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6.67Fordham University1.136.5%1st Place
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4.06North Carolina State University1.7819.2%1st Place
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5.81Eckerd College1.348.5%1st Place
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6.34Christopher Newport University1.218.9%1st Place
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6.24Hampton University1.477.8%1st Place
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9.43Virginia Tech-0.023.0%1st Place
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8.48Princeton University0.273.6%1st Place
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8.55Christopher Newport University-0.843.5%1st Place
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9.86Old Dominion University-0.202.5%1st Place
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9.09Washington College0.202.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Tanner Kelly | 15.8% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| Adam Larson | 19.2% | 15.8% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| matthew Monts | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Brian Fox | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Valerio Palamara | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Joshua Almany | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 22.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 9.8% |
| Laura Smith | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 12.8% |
| Parker Younger | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 17.8% | 28.7% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 16.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.