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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.78+3.05vs Predicted
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2Washington College1.66+3.70vs Predicted
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3Princeton University1.87+3.00vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.78+0.52vs Predicted
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5Hampton University1.47+1.24vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.21+0.50vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College1.34-1.02vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.84+0.63vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-0.02+0.48vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.13-3.26vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.20-1.95vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.27-3.68vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University-0.20-3.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.05North Carolina State University1.7817.6%1st Place
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5.7Washington College1.669.8%1st Place
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6.0Princeton University1.878.6%1st Place
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4.52U. S. Naval Academy1.7816.1%1st Place
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6.24Hampton University1.478.3%1st Place
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6.5Christopher Newport University1.216.9%1st Place
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5.98Eckerd College1.348.6%1st Place
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8.63Christopher Newport University-0.843.9%1st Place
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9.48Virginia Tech-0.022.8%1st Place
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6.74Fordham University1.137.4%1st Place
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9.05Washington College0.202.9%1st Place
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8.32Princeton University0.274.8%1st Place
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9.78Old Dominion University-0.202.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 17.6% | 16.7% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Connor Mraz | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Tanner Kelly | 16.1% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Brian Fox | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| matthew Monts | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Laura Smith | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 13.2% |
| Joshua Almany | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 16.4% | 22.7% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 15.4% |
| Jasper Waldman | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.6% |
| Parker Younger | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 16.3% | 27.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.