← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Christopher Newport University1.21+5.33vs Predicted
-
2North Carolina State University1.78+2.12vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University-0.20+6.92vs Predicted
-
4Washington College1.66+1.92vs Predicted
-
5Eckerd College1.34+0.81vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy1.78-1.37vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University1.13-0.23vs Predicted
-
8Princeton University1.87-2.16vs Predicted
-
9Hampton University1.47-2.81vs Predicted
-
10Princeton University0.27-1.83vs Predicted
-
11Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.20vs Predicted
-
12Washington College0.20-3.02vs Predicted
-
13Virginia Tech-0.02-3.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.33Christopher Newport University1.218.2%1st Place
-
4.12North Carolina State University1.7817.9%1st Place
-
9.92Old Dominion University-0.201.9%1st Place
-
5.92Washington College1.668.8%1st Place
-
5.81Eckerd College1.349.3%1st Place
-
4.63U. S. Naval Academy1.7815.0%1st Place
-
6.77Fordham University1.137.0%1st Place
-
5.84Princeton University1.879.9%1st Place
-
6.19Hampton University1.478.9%1st Place
-
8.17Princeton University0.274.2%1st Place
-
8.8Christopher Newport University-0.843.2%1st Place
-
8.98Washington College0.202.8%1st Place
-
9.49Virginia Tech-0.022.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fox | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| Adam Larson | 17.9% | 16.4% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Parker Younger | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 17.9% | 28.7% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| matthew Monts | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Tanner Kelly | 15.0% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Valerio Palamara | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Jasper Waldman | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 9.4% |
| Laura Smith | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 16.8% |
| Joshua Almany | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 23.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.