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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.78+3.11vs Predicted
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2Princeton University1.87+3.88vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College1.34+2.86vs Predicted
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4Washington College1.66+1.78vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.78-0.30vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.13+0.72vs Predicted
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7Hampton University1.47-0.92vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University-0.20+1.92vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-0.02+0.53vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.21-3.55vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.41vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.27-3.66vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.20-3.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11North Carolina State University1.7818.1%1st Place
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5.88Princeton University1.879.3%1st Place
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5.86Eckerd College1.349.5%1st Place
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5.78Washington College1.6610.4%1st Place
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4.7U. S. Naval Academy1.7814.8%1st Place
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6.72Fordham University1.136.8%1st Place
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6.08Hampton University1.478.2%1st Place
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9.92Old Dominion University-0.202.2%1st Place
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9.53Virginia Tech-0.022.5%1st Place
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6.45Christopher Newport University1.216.8%1st Place
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8.59Christopher Newport University-0.843.8%1st Place
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8.34Princeton University0.274.5%1st Place
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9.04Washington College0.202.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 18.1% | 16.3% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| matthew Monts | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Tanner Kelly | 14.8% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Parker Younger | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 29.3% |
| Joshua Almany | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 21.6% |
| Brian Fox | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 13.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 10.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 16.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.