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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.66+4.94vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.78+2.68vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University1.21+3.33vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.13+2.73vs Predicted
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5Hampton University1.47+1.17vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.34-0.12vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.27+1.48vs Predicted
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8Princeton University1.87-2.12vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.28vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University-0.20-0.20vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.78-6.96vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-0.02-2.53vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.20-4.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.94Washington College1.668.1%1st Place
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4.68U. S. Naval Academy1.7815.0%1st Place
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6.33Christopher Newport University1.217.9%1st Place
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6.73Fordham University1.137.0%1st Place
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6.17Hampton University1.478.3%1st Place
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5.88Eckerd College1.349.2%1st Place
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8.48Princeton University0.274.0%1st Place
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5.88Princeton University1.878.9%1st Place
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8.72Christopher Newport University-0.843.6%1st Place
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9.8Old Dominion University-0.202.6%1st Place
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4.04North Carolina State University1.7819.4%1st Place
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9.47Virginia Tech-0.022.8%1st Place
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8.9Washington College0.203.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Tanner Kelly | 15.0% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Brian Fox | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| matthew Monts | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Jasper Waldman | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 11.3% |
| Connor Mraz | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Laura Smith | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 13.1% |
| Parker Younger | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 28.3% |
| Adam Larson | 19.4% | 17.2% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Almany | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 19.2% | 21.3% |
| Kennedy Jones | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.