Race 1B

saisa-fall-conference

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Tony Collins 10.1% 14.1% 17.5% 17.7% 18.0% 12.6% 6.7% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Christopher Banholzer 40.5% 27.0% 17.6% 8.9% 4.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Christopher Stocke 19.3% 23.6% 20.7% 15.1% 12.2% 5.9% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Hecht 11.2% 14.2% 16.7% 19.6% 17.1% 11.1% 5.8% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Joel Hurley 1.8% 1.5% 3.1% 3.0% 6.0% 8.7% 12.5% 17.4% 21.7% 17.8% 6.5%
Allison Gray 2.0% 2.5% 4.1% 5.0% 6.0% 14.1% 17.0% 20.4% 15.1% 10.4% 3.4%
Tamara Greak 8.4% 10.6% 12.4% 15.0% 18.1% 14.3% 11.7% 6.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Marten Kendrick 4.0% 3.5% 4.7% 9.0% 10.1% 17.4% 19.6% 14.1% 12.4% 4.1% 1.1%
Ben Brightwell 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.4% 1.5% 2.9% 5.2% 7.2% 12.7% 24.5% 42.5%
Daniel Hemstreet 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 4.3% 4.4% 8.7% 13.8% 19.3% 21.0% 16.7% 6.5%
James Lemmon 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 2.3% 2.8% 4.9% 8.9% 13.1% 25.6% 39.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.