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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.53+9.15vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.23+9.52vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.01+5.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.88+4.40vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.98+3.06vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.23+1.09vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida2.51+3.06vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45+2.24vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.74-3.86vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.71-0.41vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-4.53vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.30+2.83vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.75-4.05vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.51-4.20vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.83-2.21vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50-5.72vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.97-8.66vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.21-6.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.15Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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11.52University of Rhode Island2.230.0%1st Place
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8.17Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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8.4U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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8.06Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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7.09Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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10.06University of South Florida2.510.0%1st Place
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10.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.0%1st Place
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5.14Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.59Roger Williams University2.710.1%1st Place
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6.47Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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14.83Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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8.95Connecticut College2.750.1%1st Place
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9.8Bowdoin College2.510.0%1st Place
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12.79Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
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10.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.0%1st Place
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8.34Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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11.11Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Watson | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 7.3% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Marissa Lihan | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Mariel Marchand | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Chandler Salisbury | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Colleen Hartman | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Brooke Lyon | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.0% |
| Marlena Fauer | 13.4% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annie Schmidt | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Hanna Vincent | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 39.9% |
| Liz Dubovik | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Lizzy Hamilton | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| Heidi Hood | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 15.6% |
| Lauren Cefali | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.4% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Erica Lush | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.