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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.23+6.59vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45+8.75vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.88+5.99vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.98+4.22vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.01-0.37vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.01+2.20vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-0.38vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.71+1.38vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+1.32vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.53+0.49vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.23+0.52vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.21-0.13vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.30+1.48vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.51-4.02vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.74-9.55vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.51-5.67vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.83-3.91vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College2.75-8.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.59Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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10.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.0%1st Place
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8.99U. S. Naval Academy2.880.0%1st Place
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8.22Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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4.63Boston College4.010.2%1st Place
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8.2Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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6.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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9.38Roger Williams University2.710.0%1st Place
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10.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.0%1st Place
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10.49Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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11.52University of Rhode Island2.230.0%1st Place
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11.87Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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14.48Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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9.98University of South Florida2.510.0%1st Place
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5.45Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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10.33Bowdoin College2.510.0%1st Place
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13.09Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
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9.1Connecticut College2.750.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Salisbury | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Brooke Lyon | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| Marissa Lihan | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Mariel Marchand | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| Erika Reineke | 18.3% | 16.8% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Hanna Vincent | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Annie Schmidt | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Lauren Cefali | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Caitlin Watson | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.9% |
| Erica Lush | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.1% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 14.8% | 35.4% |
| Colleen Hartman | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% |
| Marlena Fauer | 13.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lizzy Hamilton | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% |
| Heidi Hood | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 18.2% |
| Liz Dubovik | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.