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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+6.75vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.71+7.72vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.01+1.68vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+6.23vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.53+5.10vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.23+5.46vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-0.38vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.75+1.22vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.83+3.96vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45+0.69vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.01-2.65vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.51-1.35vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.98-4.76vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.21-2.85vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.88-6.32vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida2.51-5.64vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.30-2.19vs Predicted
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18Yale University3.74-12.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.75Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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9.72Roger Williams University2.710.0%1st Place
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4.68Boston College4.010.2%1st Place
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10.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.0%1st Place
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10.1Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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11.46University of Rhode Island2.230.0%1st Place
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6.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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9.22Connecticut College2.750.0%1st Place
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12.96Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
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10.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.0%1st Place
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8.35Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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10.65Bowdoin College2.510.0%1st Place
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8.24Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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11.15Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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8.68U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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10.36University of South Florida2.510.0%1st Place
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14.81Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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5.32Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Wheeler | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Annie Schmidt | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| Erika Reineke | 15.9% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Cefali | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.2% |
| Caitlin Watson | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.8% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.1% |
| Hanna Vincent | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Liz Dubovik | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Heidi Hood | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 15.0% |
| Brooke Lyon | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.8% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Lizzy Hamilton | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 4.1% |
| Mariel Marchand | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Erica Lush | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% |
| Marissa Lihan | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Colleen Hartman | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 39.9% |
| Marlena Fauer | 12.3% | 14.4% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.