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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+6.80vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.98+6.55vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.53+7.39vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.23+7.29vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.83+7.80vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+0.53vs Predicted
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7Boston College4.01-2.34vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.88+0.67vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.01-0.84vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.51+0.57vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45-0.34vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50-1.21vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.30+1.47vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.51-4.01vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.74-9.58vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.75-6.71vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.71-7.38vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.21-6.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.8Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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8.55Tufts University2.980.0%1st Place
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10.39Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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11.29University of Rhode Island2.230.0%1st Place
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12.8Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
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6.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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4.66Boston College4.010.2%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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8.16Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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10.57Bowdoin College2.510.0%1st Place
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10.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.0%1st Place
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10.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.0%1st Place
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14.47Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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9.99University of South Florida2.510.0%1st Place
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5.42Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.29Connecticut College2.750.1%1st Place
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9.62Roger Williams University2.710.0%1st Place
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11.33Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Wheeler | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Mariel Marchand | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Caitlin Watson | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 2.8% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% |
| Heidi Hood | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 18.0% |
| Hanna Vincent | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 16.8% | 16.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Marissa Lihan | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Lizzy Hamilton | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% |
| Brooke Lyon | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% |
| Lauren Cefali | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 4.8% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 36.3% |
| Colleen Hartman | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% |
| Marlena Fauer | 13.4% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Liz Dubovik | 5.2% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Annie Schmidt | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Erica Lush | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.