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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+6.08vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.71+7.11vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.88+5.45vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.74+1.37vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+4.68vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.01+2.12vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.98+1.10vs Predicted
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8Boston College4.01-3.50vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-2.44vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.30+3.99vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45-0.74vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.23-1.10vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.53-3.09vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.90-5.50vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.75-7.11vs Predicted
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17Boston University2.21-5.90vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.83-5.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.08Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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9.11Roger Williams University2.710.1%1st Place
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8.45U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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5.37Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.0%1st Place
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8.12Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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8.1Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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4.5Boston College4.010.2%1st Place
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6.56Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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13.99Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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10.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.0%1st Place
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10.9University of Rhode Island2.230.0%1st Place
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9.91Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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8.5University of South Florida2.900.1%1st Place
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8.89Connecticut College2.750.1%1st Place
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11.1Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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12.48Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Wheeler | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Annie Schmidt | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Marissa Lihan | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Marlena Fauer | 13.1% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Cefali | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 3.8% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Mariel Marchand | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Erika Reineke | 18.7% | 15.9% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hanna Vincent | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 36.6% |
| Brooke Lyon | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 5.6% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.2% |
| Caitlin Watson | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Dominique Wright | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Liz Dubovik | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| Erica Lush | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% |
| Heidi Hood | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 18.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.