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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+7.33vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.60+6.11vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+8.39vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.78vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University4.01+1.37vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo2.44+6.34vs Predicted
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7Fordham University4.26-1.43vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University4.74-3.92vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.35-0.25vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-3.13vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.56vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.75+2.77vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.83-6.05vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University2.46-2.12vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.07-5.13vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-5.50vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.38-4.36vs Predicted
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18Princeton University1.81-3.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.33University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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8.11SUNY Maritime College3.600.0%1st Place
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11.39Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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6.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.37Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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12.34University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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5.57Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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4.08Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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8.75Cornell University3.350.0%1st Place
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6.87St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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11.56University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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14.77Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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11.88Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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9.87Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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10.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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12.64George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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14.24Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Harry Scott | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 4.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.7% |
| Olin Paine | 11.7% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 19.3% | 18.6% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 5.8% |
| Joan Boyle | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 16.1% | 33.2% |
| Alex Ramos | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 7.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Ian Connors | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 9.2% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 17.9% | 24.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.