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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.07+9.13vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+2.25vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.83+4.26vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University4.01+2.32vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.60+2.85vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.91vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-0.36vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.540.00vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.35-0.22vs Predicted
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10Fordham University4.26-4.28vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+0.29vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.26vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.38-0.64vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo2.44-1.97vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University2.46-2.78vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.81-1.55vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.68-5.39vs Predicted
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18Drexel University1.75-3.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.13Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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4.25Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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7.26U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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6.32Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.85SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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6.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.0University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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8.78Cornell University3.350.0%1st Place
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5.72Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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11.29Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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10.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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12.36George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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12.03University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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12.22Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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14.45Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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11.61University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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14.43Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 15.2% | 19.6% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Harry Scott | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Turner | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Olin Paine | 12.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.4% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Ian Connors | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 10.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 7.9% |
| Ben Buhl | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 15.3% | 28.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 27.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.