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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.60+3.91vs Predicted
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2Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+6.57vs Predicted
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3Columbia University0.44+2.39vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.19+2.59vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.50-0.01vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.67-1.64vs Predicted
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7University of Delaware-1.26+3.55vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.21-0.48vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University0.19-3.18vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.60+0.94vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-0.93-0.93vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.57-3.48vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-1.97-0.77vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-2.68-0.45vs Predicted
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15Penn State University0.27-9.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.91Christopher Newport University0.6013.8%1st Place
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8.57Rochester Institute of Technology-0.644.3%1st Place
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5.39Columbia University0.4410.0%1st Place
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6.59Washington College0.197.7%1st Place
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4.99SUNY Maritime College0.5012.4%1st Place
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4.36Virginia Tech0.6716.5%1st Place
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10.55University of Delaware-1.262.5%1st Place
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7.52William and Mary-0.215.3%1st Place
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5.82Syracuse University0.199.3%1st Place
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10.94SUNY Stony Brook-0.601.6%1st Place
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10.07Drexel University-0.932.5%1st Place
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8.52Princeton University-0.573.9%1st Place
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12.23Rutgers University-1.971.1%1st Place
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13.55U. S. Military Academy-2.680.7%1st Place
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6.0Penn State University0.278.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Atherton | 13.8% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 10.0% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 12.4% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 16.5% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 6.8% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Alexa Whitman | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 18.2% | 7.8% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 11.7% | 4.3% |
| William Roberts | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Vaughn Lynch | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 15.4% | 25.6% | 22.7% |
| McCaslin Miles | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 17.3% | 54.9% |
| Joseph Murphy | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.