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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.02vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.60+6.02vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+5.45vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia3.54+3.92vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.74-0.96vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+0.62vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University4.01-0.70vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.23vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.07+0.80vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.75+4.61vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+0.24vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.32vs Predicted
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13Cornell University3.35-4.38vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.38-1.89vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.81-0.69vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University2.46-3.73vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo2.44-4.63vs Predicted
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18Fordham University4.26-12.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.02SUNY Maritime College3.600.0%1st Place
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8.45St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.0%1st Place
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7.92University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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4.04Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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6.3Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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10.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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9.8Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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14.61Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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11.24Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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11.68University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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8.62Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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12.11George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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14.31Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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12.27Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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12.37University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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5.38Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Harry Scott | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Markus Edegran | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Chris Barnard | 22.1% | 17.8% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Joan Boyle | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 16.8% | 31.5% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| Michael Russom | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| Lauren Turner | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Ian Connors | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 8.4% |
| Samantha Gebb | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 18.0% | 25.5% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 8.6% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 8.3% |
| Olin Paine | 11.1% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.