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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.04vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+4.80vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+5.23vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.60+3.73vs Predicted
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5Fordham University4.26+0.47vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University4.74-1.94vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University2.46+5.16vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.07+1.76vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-0.90vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University4.01-3.48vs Predicted
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11Cornell University3.35-2.14vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.31vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-2.08vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo2.44-2.00vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.75-0.48vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.81-1.57vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.38-4.40vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-7.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.23University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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7.73SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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5.47Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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4.06Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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12.16Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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9.76Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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8.1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.0%1st Place
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6.52Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.86Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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11.69University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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10.92Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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12.0University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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14.52Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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14.43Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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12.6George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Harry Scott | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Olin Paine | 12.2% | 13.8% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 18.7% | 18.4% | 16.0% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 7.5% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Michael Russom | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 6.4% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 3.7% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 8.2% |
| Joan Boyle | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 16.4% | 28.8% |
| Samantha Gebb | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 27.5% |
| Ian Connors | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.