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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University4.01+5.52vs Predicted
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2Fordham University4.26+3.54vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University2.46+9.45vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+2.55vs Predicted
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5Drexel University1.75+9.38vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia3.54+2.02vs Predicted
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7Washington College3.07+2.84vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.29vs Predicted
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9University of Buffalo2.44+3.33vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-1.55vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.60-3.08vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-4.90vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University4.74-9.00vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.38-1.85vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.81-0.72vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-4.82vs Predicted
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17Cornell University3.35-8.13vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-7.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.52Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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5.54Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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12.45Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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6.55St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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14.38Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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8.02University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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9.84Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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11.29University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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12.33University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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8.45St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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7.92SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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7.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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4.0Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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12.15George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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14.28Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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11.18Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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8.87Cornell University3.350.0%1st Place
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10.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Paiva | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Olin Paine | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Buhl | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 9.9% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 15.1% | 30.7% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Michael Russom | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% |
| Griffin Orr | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 8.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Harry Scott | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 19.8% | 17.7% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 9.7% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 17.3% | 25.7% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
| Lauren Turner | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Bates | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.