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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.02vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+2.15vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University4.01+3.46vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.35+4.66vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+3.16vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.60+1.88vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.16vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.07+1.78vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.34vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-3.16vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University2.46+1.27vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.35vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia3.54-5.10vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo2.44-2.05vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.75-0.52vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.81-1.62vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.38-4.43vs Predicted
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18Fordham University4.26-12.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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4.15Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.46Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.66Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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8.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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7.88SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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11.16Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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9.78Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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6.84St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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12.27Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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11.65University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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7.9University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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11.95University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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14.48Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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14.38Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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12.57George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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5.35Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Chris Barnard | 15.9% | 18.0% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 5.5% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Harry Scott | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 9.1% |
| Michael Russom | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 6.2% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 7.9% |
| Joan Boyle | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 16.1% | 29.5% |
| Samantha Gebb | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 16.5% | 27.2% |
| Ian Connors | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 10.8% |
| Olin Paine | 11.8% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.