← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Virginia3.54+6.96vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University4.74+2.03vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University4.01+3.29vs Predicted
-
4Washington College3.07+5.43vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+2.89vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.58vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-0.65vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University2.48+3.66vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College3.60-1.51vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University4.26-4.51vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.09vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.69vs Predicted
-
13University of Buffalo2.44-1.26vs Predicted
-
14Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-3.51vs Predicted
-
15Christopher Newport University2.46-3.21vs Predicted
-
16George Washington University2.38-3.81vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University0.88-0.76vs Predicted
-
18Drexel University1.75-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.96University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
-
4.03Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
-
6.29Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
-
9.43Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
-
7.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
-
6.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
6.35St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
-
11.66Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
-
7.49SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
-
5.49Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
-
11.09University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
-
10.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
-
11.74University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
-
10.49Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
-
11.79Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
-
12.19George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
-
16.24Princeton University0.880.0%1st Place
-
13.97Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 16.9% | 20.1% | 15.1% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 3.4% |
| Harry Scott | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Olin Paine | 13.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 2.8% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 4.7% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 4.4% |
| Ian Connors | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 6.2% |
| Lucy Cobbs | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 13.1% | 58.1% |
| Joan Boyle | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 20.6% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.