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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+7.14vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+2.06vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.49vs Predicted
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4Washington College3.07+5.42vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University4.01+1.10vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.60+1.52vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+3.79vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-1.54vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.48+2.74vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.54-2.02vs Predicted
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11Fordham University4.26-5.59vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.73vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University2.46-1.38vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.38-2.25vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo2.44-3.15vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.75-1.80vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-6.85vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.88-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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4.06Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.49St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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9.42Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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6.1Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.52SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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10.79Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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6.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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11.74Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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7.98University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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5.41Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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11.27University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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11.62Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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11.75George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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11.85University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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14.2Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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10.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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16.06Princeton University0.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Chris Barnard | 15.9% | 19.1% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.0% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 4.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Olin Paine | 13.2% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 4.1% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 3.5% |
| Ian Connors | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 4.8% |
| Griffin Orr | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 4.2% |
| Joan Boyle | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 21.2% | 19.3% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Lucy Cobbs | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 15.1% | 54.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.