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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.09+6.07vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.22+5.75vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56+8.21vs Predicted
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4Tulane University1.34+3.47vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.54+6.76vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.79-0.09vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.81-1.86vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.16+0.54vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.07-0.53vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University1.86-4.21vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.82-1.37vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.68-1.76vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.34-0.95vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.24-1.87vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island0.79-5.77vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy0.52-5.45vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College-0.17-3.75vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.68-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.07North Carolina State University1.098.5%1st Place
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7.75Northeastern University1.226.8%1st Place
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11.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.562.4%1st Place
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7.47Tulane University1.347.0%1st Place
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11.76Fordham University0.542.6%1st Place
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5.91Cornell University1.7911.6%1st Place
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5.14College of Charleston1.8115.3%1st Place
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8.54Tufts University1.165.7%1st Place
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8.47George Washington University1.075.8%1st Place
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5.79Georgetown University1.8611.3%1st Place
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9.63Jacksonville University0.823.6%1st Place
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10.24Old Dominion University0.683.5%1st Place
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12.05Connecticut College0.342.7%1st Place
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12.13University of Vermont0.242.2%1st Place
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9.23University of Rhode Island0.794.9%1st Place
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10.55U. S. Naval Academy0.523.6%1st Place
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13.25Eckerd College-0.171.5%1st Place
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14.8Washington College-0.680.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Brook Wood | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| Lucy Spearman | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Emma Tallman | 15.3% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Annika Fedde | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Kelly Bates | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Agija Elerte | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Megan Geith | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 10.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.5% |
| Leah Rickard | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% |
| Lily Schwartz | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 16.4% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 36.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.