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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+4.32vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+6.47vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.36+1.13vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.07vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.82+0.59vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.84+3.11vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.88vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+3.90vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.77+0.27vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.40-2.75vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-0.85vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.95+0.57vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo1.34+0.93vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.01-5.81vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.64-1.75vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.51-5.67vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.55-0.92vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University1.57-4.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.32St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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8.47SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
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4.13Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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6.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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5.59Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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9.11Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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6.12U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.9Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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9.27Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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7.25Fordham University3.400.1%1st Place
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10.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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12.57University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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13.93University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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8.19University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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13.25Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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10.33George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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16.08Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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13.28Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 12.0% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Nevin Snow | 17.6% | 16.6% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 11.7% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Michael Grove | 9.9% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 3.7% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Alex Jacob | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Christina Johns | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 5.9% |
| Luke Miller | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 18.9% | 16.8% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Chris Myers | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 9.4% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 50.7% |
| Richard Ross | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 16.8% | 13.6% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.