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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Columbia University0.44+4.44vs Predicted
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2Penn State University0.27+4.07vs Predicted
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3William and Mary-0.21+4.41vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.60+1.02vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech0.67-0.58vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.19+0.76vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.60+3.96vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.50-3.08vs Predicted
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9Drexel University-0.93+1.30vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-1.24vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-1.26-0.29vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-1.67-0.38vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.57-4.59vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University0.19-8.19vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-2.58-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44Columbia University0.4411.4%1st Place
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6.07Penn State University0.278.3%1st Place
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7.41William and Mary-0.216.1%1st Place
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5.02Christopher Newport University0.6012.0%1st Place
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4.42Virginia Tech0.6716.0%1st Place
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6.76Washington College0.197.2%1st Place
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10.96SUNY Stony Brook-0.601.7%1st Place
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4.92SUNY Maritime College0.5013.4%1st Place
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10.3Drexel University-0.932.1%1st Place
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8.76Rochester Institute of Technology-0.643.6%1st Place
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10.71University of Delaware-1.261.8%1st Place
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11.62Rutgers University-1.671.5%1st Place
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8.41Princeton University-0.574.3%1st Place
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5.81Syracuse University0.1910.0%1st Place
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13.37U. S. Military Academy-2.580.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Frost | 11.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Aston Atherton | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 16.0% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 18.9% | 9.3% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 13.4% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 6.6% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 17.0% | 15.9% | 8.9% |
| Karolina Debniak | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 22.1% | 17.0% |
| William Roberts | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 0.9% |
| Alexa Whitman | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Knutson | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 55.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.