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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.36+3.04vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.05vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.40+3.95vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.89vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+3.05vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+3.89vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.11vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.82-2.66vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.84-0.17vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01-1.53vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-1.77vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.95+0.42vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.51-3.13vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.42vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo1.34-0.96vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.64-2.74vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.55-0.99vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University1.57-4.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.04Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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6.05U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.95Fordham University3.400.1%1st Place
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7.89SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.05St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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9.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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5.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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5.34Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.83Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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8.47University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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9.23Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.42University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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9.87George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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11.58Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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14.04University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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13.26Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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16.01Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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13.2Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 19.3% | 17.7% | 14.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Alex Jacob | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| John Wallace | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 11.9% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Christina Johns | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 5.6% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Christian Geary | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 3.7% |
| Luke Miller | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 19.2% | 15.7% |
| Chris Myers | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 15.3% | 10.7% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 51.2% |
| Richard Ross | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.