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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.36+3.02vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.03vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+5.24vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.84+4.70vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.82+0.39vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.40+0.81vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+4.86vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.51+2.02vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia3.01-0.90vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.77-0.67vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.06-2.85vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-1.89vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-7.14vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.95-2.17vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.64-1.89vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.57-2.55vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo1.34-2.83vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.55-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.02Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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6.03U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.24St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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8.7Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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5.39Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.81Fordham University3.400.1%1st Place
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11.86Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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10.02George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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8.1University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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9.33Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.15SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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5.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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11.83University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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13.11Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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13.45Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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14.17University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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15.81Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 19.4% | 17.9% | 14.5% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Esteban Forrer | 13.6% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Jacob | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 5.1% |
| Maria Sinagra | 4.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Steel | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Robert Boger | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Johns | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% |
| Chris Myers | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 14.7% | 9.7% |
| Richard Ross | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 16.4% | 12.1% |
| Luke Miller | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 20.8% | 17.3% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 18.7% | 46.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.