← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University4.36+3.03vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+6.25vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.02vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University3.40+2.68vs Predicted
-
5Washington College2.84+3.77vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College3.06+2.06vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.07vs Predicted
-
8University of Virginia3.01+0.13vs Predicted
-
9Christopher Newport University1.57+4.39vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+0.03vs Predicted
-
11Drexel University1.64+2.20vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University2.51-1.59vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University2.77-4.08vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University0.55+1.80vs Predicted
-
15University of Pennsylvania1.95-3.02vs Predicted
-
16University of Buffalo1.34-1.89vs Predicted
-
17Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-4.98vs Predicted
-
18Old Dominion University3.82-12.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.03Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
-
8.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
-
6.02U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
6.68Fordham University3.400.1%1st Place
-
8.77Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
-
8.06SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
-
5.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
-
8.13University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
-
13.39Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
-
10.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
-
13.2Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
-
10.41George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
-
8.92Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
-
15.8Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
-
11.98University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
-
14.11University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
-
12.02Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
-
5.27Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 19.5% | 17.5% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Michael Grove | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Jacob | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Richard Ross | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 16.3% | 10.5% |
| Robert Boger | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Chris Myers | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 11.3% |
| Maria Sinagra | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 46.9% |
| Christina Johns | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 4.3% |
| Luke Miller | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 19.5% | 16.8% |
| Christian Geary | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 5.2% |
| Esteban Forrer | 12.2% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.