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📊 Prediction Accuracy
6.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Penn State University0.27+4.99vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.60+2.98vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.50+2.02vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.19+2.68vs Predicted
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5William and Mary-0.21+2.43vs Predicted
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6University of Delaware-1.26+4.81vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.60+4.00vs Predicted
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8Drexel University-0.93+2.17vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.44-3.45vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.67-5.60vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-2.31vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University0.19-6.09vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.57-4.51vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-1.67-2.44vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-2.58-1.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.99Penn State University0.278.4%1st Place
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4.98Christopher Newport University0.6014.5%1st Place
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5.02SUNY Maritime College0.5013.4%1st Place
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6.68Washington College0.197.0%1st Place
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7.43William and Mary-0.216.2%1st Place
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10.81University of Delaware-1.261.4%1st Place
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11.0SUNY Stony Brook-0.602.4%1st Place
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10.17Drexel University-0.932.4%1st Place
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5.55Columbia University0.4410.3%1st Place
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4.4Virginia Tech0.6716.0%1st Place
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8.69Rochester Institute of Technology-0.643.5%1st Place
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5.91Syracuse University0.199.0%1st Place
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8.49Princeton University-0.573.8%1st Place
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11.56Rutgers University-1.671.2%1st Place
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13.32U. S. Military Academy-2.580.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Murphy | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 14.5% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 9.7% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 15.0% | 19.7% | 11.2% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 7.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 16.0% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Alexa Whitman | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Karolina Debniak | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 22.1% | 15.6% |
| Matthew Knutson | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 16.6% | 52.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.