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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.96vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+6.14vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.84+5.92vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.36-0.19vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.40+1.66vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.82-0.72vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.51+2.88vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-2.24vs Predicted
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9Drexel University1.64+4.08vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01-1.66vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.63-1.35vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.57+1.56vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-3.35vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.77-5.28vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-3.31vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.55-0.10vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.95-4.85vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo1.34-4.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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8.92Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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3.81Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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6.66Fordham University3.400.1%1st Place
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5.28Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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9.88George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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5.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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13.08Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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8.34University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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9.65SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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13.56Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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9.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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8.72Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.69Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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15.9Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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12.15University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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13.84University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Nevin Snow | 21.8% | 19.2% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Jacob | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 11.5% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.5% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 14.8% | 8.9% |
| Christopher Stessing | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Richard Ross | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 16.6% | 13.8% |
| Robert Boger | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Christian Geary | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 17.5% | 48.1% |
| Christina Johns | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 5.6% |
| Luke Miller | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 18.2% | 14.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.