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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.40+5.89vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.36+1.88vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+5.11vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.82+1.28vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.84+3.67vs Predicted
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6Drexel University1.64+7.10vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.19vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.77+0.92vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.63+0.46vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-0.06vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.51-0.91vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.01-3.60vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.67-7.28vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.56vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.55+0.89vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.95-3.90vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo1.34-2.88vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University1.57-4.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.89Fordham University3.400.1%1st Place
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3.88Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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8.11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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5.28Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.67Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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13.1Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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5.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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8.92Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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9.46SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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9.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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10.09George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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8.4University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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5.72U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.44Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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15.89Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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12.1University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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14.12University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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13.19Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Jacob | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 17.4% | 19.6% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 13.1% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Chris Myers | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 10.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Robert Boger | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Michael Grove | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 18.4% | 47.0% |
| Christina Johns | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 5.3% |
| Luke Miller | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 20.3% | 17.7% |
| Richard Ross | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 15.3% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.