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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.66vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+1.51vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.99+2.44vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.85+1.97vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.74+1.49vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.33-1.42vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University-0.51+2.43vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-2.23vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.70+1.11vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis0.07-2.32vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-0.41-1.82vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.25-2.34vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-4.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.66University of California at Los Angeles1.3013.8%1st Place
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3.51University of California at Santa Barbara1.4421.6%1st Place
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5.44University of Hawaii0.9910.1%1st Place
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5.97University of Southern California0.857.9%1st Place
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6.49University of Washington0.746.8%1st Place
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4.58California Poly Maritime Academy1.3313.2%1st Place
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9.43Western Washington University-0.512.1%1st Place
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5.77University of California at Santa Cruz0.919.4%1st Place
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10.11University of California at San Diego-0.702.0%1st Place
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7.68University of California at Davis0.075.0%1st Place
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9.18Arizona State University-0.413.0%1st Place
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9.66University of California at Berkeley-0.252.0%1st Place
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8.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.263.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marianna Shand | 13.8% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 21.6% | 19.4% | 16.0% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Marlo Bozza | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Erin Pamplin | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Maxwell Roth | 13.2% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Anna Morrow | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 16.2% | 18.3% |
| Colin Olson | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 17.8% | 28.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 4.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 16.6% | 21.3% |
| Florence Duff | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.