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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Columbia University0.44+4.30vs Predicted
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2Syracuse University0.19+3.95vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.50+1.98vs Predicted
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4Princeton University-0.57+4.44vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.19+1.67vs Predicted
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6Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+2.64vs Predicted
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7Penn State University0.27-1.16vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.21-0.61vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.60-4.07vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.67-5.61vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-1.26-0.32vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-1.97+0.13vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-0.93-2.83vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-2.68-0.51vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-3.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.3Columbia University0.4411.7%1st Place
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5.95Syracuse University0.199.2%1st Place
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4.98SUNY Maritime College0.5013.7%1st Place
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8.44Princeton University-0.574.3%1st Place
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6.67Washington College0.197.7%1st Place
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8.64Rochester Institute of Technology-0.643.8%1st Place
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5.84Penn State University0.278.8%1st Place
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7.39William and Mary-0.214.5%1st Place
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4.93Christopher Newport University0.6012.4%1st Place
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4.39Virginia Tech0.6717.1%1st Place
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10.68University of Delaware-1.261.8%1st Place
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12.13Rutgers University-1.971.1%1st Place
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10.17Drexel University-0.932.1%1st Place
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13.49U. S. Military Academy-2.680.5%1st Place
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11.01SUNY Stony Brook-0.601.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Frost | 11.7% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 13.7% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Joseph Murphy | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Aston Atherton | 12.4% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 17.1% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 17.2% | 15.7% | 6.7% |
| Vaughn Lynch | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 27.0% | 20.6% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 11.3% | 5.3% |
| McCaslin Miles | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 16.7% | 56.8% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 15.1% | 17.1% | 17.5% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.