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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.50+4.00vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech0.67+2.41vs Predicted
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3William and Mary-0.21+4.51vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University0.19+1.84vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.19+1.68vs Predicted
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6Drexel University-0.93+4.31vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.57+1.48vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.44-2.48vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.60+2.12vs Predicted
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10University of Delaware-1.26+0.56vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-2.42vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-1.67-0.29vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.60-7.99vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-2.58-0.72vs Predicted
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15Penn State University0.27-9.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.0SUNY Maritime College0.5013.0%1st Place
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4.41Virginia Tech0.6716.7%1st Place
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7.51William and Mary-0.216.5%1st Place
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5.84Syracuse University0.199.3%1st Place
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6.68Washington College0.198.5%1st Place
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10.31Drexel University-0.932.1%1st Place
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8.48Princeton University-0.573.9%1st Place
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5.52Columbia University0.449.6%1st Place
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11.12SUNY Stony Brook-0.601.4%1st Place
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10.56University of Delaware-1.262.5%1st Place
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8.58Rochester Institute of Technology-0.644.1%1st Place
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11.71Rutgers University-1.671.6%1st Place
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5.01Christopher Newport University0.6013.1%1st Place
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13.28U. S. Military Academy-2.580.4%1st Place
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5.98Penn State University0.277.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 13.0% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 16.7% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Alexa Whitman | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 6.4% |
| William Roberts | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 9.6% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 18.1% | 16.7% | 11.8% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 8.8% |
| Kayla Maguire | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
| Karolina Debniak | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 21.7% | 17.9% |
| Aston Atherton | 13.1% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Knutson | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 16.8% | 51.5% |
| Joseph Murphy | 7.7% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.