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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech0.67+3.37vs Predicted
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2Princeton University-0.57+6.50vs Predicted
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3William and Mary-0.21+4.41vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University0.19+1.93vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.19+1.59vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.60-1.09vs Predicted
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7Penn State University0.27-1.10vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.50-2.95vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.44-3.49vs Predicted
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10University of Delaware-1.26+0.65vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-0.93-0.77vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.12vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-1.95vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-1.67-2.42vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-2.58-1.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.37Virginia Tech0.6716.4%1st Place
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8.5Princeton University-0.574.1%1st Place
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7.41William and Mary-0.216.0%1st Place
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5.93Syracuse University0.199.2%1st Place
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6.59Washington College0.197.3%1st Place
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4.91Christopher Newport University0.6013.1%1st Place
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5.9Penn State University0.2710.1%1st Place
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5.05SUNY Maritime College0.5013.1%1st Place
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5.51Columbia University0.449.7%1st Place
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10.65University of Delaware-1.262.0%1st Place
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10.23Drexel University-0.932.4%1st Place
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8.88Rochester Institute of Technology-0.643.5%1st Place
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11.05SUNY Stony Brook-0.601.7%1st Place
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11.58Rutgers University-1.671.0%1st Place
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13.44U. S. Military Academy-2.580.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Lilyquist | 16.4% | 16.5% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Alexa Whitman | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 13.1% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 13.1% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Deutsch | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 16.7% | 7.7% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 6.6% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 19.0% | 11.8% |
| Karolina Debniak | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 17.1% | 20.8% | 16.1% |
| Matthew Knutson | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 54.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.